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Prediction for CME (2026-07-03T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-03T18:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47302/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-07-03T18:36Z. It is also seen to the NW in GOES CCOR-1 and to the NNE in STEREO A COR2. Only the first couple of frames in SOHO LASCO C2 are seen in real time due to a data gap between downlink periods. This CME is associated with an M6.7 class flare from AR 14479 (N15W58) that peaked at 2026-07-03T18:11Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131. A large EUV wave and wide opening field lines are also seen in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-07T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 55.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

Expected arrival time: 2026-07-07T18:00:00Z

    Arrival time uncertainty: 12


    Estimated peak K: 5

    Peak K uncertainty: 1


    Probability of arrival: 55


    CME start time: 2026-07-03T18:12:00Z

Lead Time: 72.95 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-04T17:03Z

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